With less than a month until Election Day, the 2024 U.S. presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains highly competitive. Recent polling data provides crucial insights into the state of the race, both nationally and in key battleground states. In this poll, we will look at the latest polls, examining trends, demographic breakdowns, and potential paths to victory for both candidates.
National Polling Trends
According to the latest national polling averages, Kamala Harris maintains a slight lead over Donald Trump. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Harris with a 2.6-point lead (48.5% to 45.9%).
Other aggregators paint a similar picture:
- RealClearPolitics: Harris +2.0% (49.2% to 47.2%)
- Race to the WH: Harris +3.1% (49.4% to 46.3%)
- Decision Desk HQ/The Hill: Harris +3.0% (49.8% to 46.8%)
- 270toWin: Harris +2.7% (49.3% to 46.6%)
While these numbers suggest a consistent lead for Harris, it’s important to note that many of these leads fall within the margin of error for most polls. The race remains close, and national polls don’t necessarily reflect the state-by-state dynamics that will determine the Electoral College outcome.
Key Battleground States
The outcome of the 2024 election will likely hinge on a handful of key swing states. Here’s a breakdown of the latest polling in crucial battlegrounds:
1. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes):
Harris leads by a narrow margin of 0.7 points (47.8% to 47.3%), according to FiveThirtyEight. Recent polls show a tight race, with some indicating a tie and others giving a slight edge to Harris.
2. Michigan (16 electoral votes):
Harris holds an average lead of 1.1 points (47.9% to 46.8%). However, a recent Quinnipiac University poll showed Trump leading 51% to 47%, followed by a survey two days later giving Harris a 3-point lead.
3. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes):
Harris is up on average by just 0.8 points (48.0% to 47.2%). The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Trump ahead 48% to 46%, while others give a similar lead to Harris.
4. Arizona (11 electoral votes):
Trump leads here by an average of 1.4 points (48.2% to 46.8%). Recent polls show a range from a 3-point lead for Trump to a 1-point lead for Harris.
5. Georgia (16 electoral votes):
Trump maintains a slim lead of 1.1 points (48.3% to 47.3%). Recent polls range from a tie to a 5-point lead for Trump.
6. North Carolina (15 electoral votes):
Trump holds a narrow 1-point lead in aggregated polls. Recent surveys show the race as essentially tied.
7. Florida (29 electoral votes):
While traditionally considered a swing state, recent polls show conflicting results. A New York Times/Siena College poll gives Trump a significant 14-point lead (55% to 41%), while other polls show a much tighter race with an average lead for Trump between 2 and 5 points.
8. Nevada (6 electoral votes):
Harris leads by an average of 0.8 points, however the race seems to be narrowing. Recent polls only give her a 1-point lead compared to mid-September polls, where she led by as much as 7 points.
Demographic Breakdowns
The 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump shows significant divisions along demographic lines, highlighting the diverse preferences of different voter groups.
Age: Younger voters strongly favour Harris, while older voters lean towards Trump. According to a Pew Research Center poll:
- Voters under 50: Harris leads 54% to 44%
- Voters 50 and older: Trump leads 53% to 46%
A Harvard Youth Poll shows a more pronounced lead for Harris among young voters (18-29) of 64% versus 32% for Trump.
Race and Ethnicity: The Pew Research Center poll reveals stark racial divides:
- Black voters: Harris leads 84% to 13%
- Hispanic voters: Harris leads 57% to 39%
- Asian voters: Harris leads 61% to 37%
- White voters: Trump leads 56% to 42%
Gender: A significant gender gap is evident, as reported by Pew Research:
- Men: Trump leads 52% to 46%, however some polls have Trump’s lead as high as 14%.
- Women: Harris has a substantial lead among women, in some polls, by as much as 13%.
The Harvard Youth Poll shows an even wider gender gap among young voters:
- Young women: Harris leads 70% to 23%
Education: Educational attainment continues to be a strong predictor of voting preferences:
- Voters without a bachelor’s degree: Trump leads 53% to 44%
- Voters with a bachelor’s degree or higher: Harris leads 57% to 41%
Other Notable Demographics:
- Union members favour Harris 57% to 41%
- Veterans favour Trump 61% to 37%
These demographic breakdowns reveal the complex landscape of the 2024 election. Harris performs strongly among younger voters, women, racial minorities, and college-educated voters.
Conversely, Trump maintains advantages with older voters, men, white voters, and those without college degrees. The gender gap has widened significantly since earlier polls, with Harris making substantial gains among women voters. This is particularly pronounced among young women, where Harris holds a commanding lead.
Key Issues Influencing Voters
Several issues are driving voter decisions in the 2024 presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump:
Economy: The economy remains the top concern for most voters. According to a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 2,500 US adults conducted up to September 26, 2024, the economy is the most important issue impacting how people will vote in this election. Trump is generally seen as more capable of handling economic challenges, with a 9-point lead on economic matters and an 8-point lead on managing the cost of living.
Immigration: Immigration is a significant issue, especially in border states like Arizona. The same Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll shows that 34% of voters consider immigration one of the most important issues. For Trump voters, immigration is even more critical, with 57% viewing it as one of the biggest issues. Trump holds a 21-point lead on border security.
Abortion rights: Abortion has become a central issue following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. The Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll indicates that 37% of voters consider abortion the second most important issue. Harris leads on this issue, particularly among women voters, with a 21-point advantage over Trump on abortion rights.
Other issues: Foreign policy concerns, including conflicts in the Middle East and support for Ukraine, are influencing voter decisions. Climate change is an area where Harris has an advantage, especially among younger voters. Healthcare is also a top priority for Harris voters, with 40% considering it one of the most critical issues.
It’s worth noting that the importance of these issues can vary among different voter groups. For example, while the economy is the top issue overall, abortion is front and centre for Harris voters (55%), and immigration is a crucial concern for Trump voters (57%).
An NBC poll conducted in September also examined what issues voters of all stripes believed were the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates. The results show that Trump has a commanding lead on border security, the economy, the cost of living, and crime. Harris leads on abortion, competency and having the right temperament to be president.
Impact of Recent Events
The recent presidential debate appears to have had a mixed impact on the race. While initial polls showed Harris as the perceived winner (54% to 31% in a YouGov poll), the effect on overall voter preferences seems limited. Harris’s post-debate momentum appears to have diminished in some swing states, such as Wisconsin.
The response to Hurricane Helene, which recently impacted several states, including Florida and North Carolina, could influence voters’ perceptions of the candidates’ leadership abilities.
Paths to Victory
For Harris, the most viable path to victory involves winning the three crucial “Blue Wall” states—Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—and holding onto states Biden won in 2020.
Trump’s path to victory could involve winning the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina while flipping Wisconsin or Michigan. Alternatively, securing Pennsylvania and other battleground states could put him over the 270 electoral vote threshold.
Based on the latest polling data for the key swing states, this is what the electoral college might look like. The winner needs to secure 270 votes for a majority.
- Solid Harris states: 215 electoral votes
- Solid Trump states: 219 electoral votes
Toss-up states (104 electoral votes):
- Arizona (11 EV): Leaning slightly Trump
- Nevada (6 EV): Leaning Harris
- Wisconsin (10 EV): Leaning slightly Harris
- Michigan (15 EV): Leaning Harris
- Pennsylvania (19 EV): Leaning slightly Harris
- North Carolina (16 EV): Toss-up, slight Trump lean
- Georgia (16 EV): Leaning slightly Trump
- Minnesota (10 EV): Leaning slightly Harris
If we allocate the states based on their current leans:
Harris: 215 + 6 (NV) + 10 (WI) + 15 (MI) + 19 (PA) + 10 (MN) = 275
Trump: 219 + 11 (AZ) + 16 (NC) + 16 (GA) = 262
This leaves the race incredibly close, with Harris just getting over the line with 275 electoral votes. The outcome would likely come down to the states with the slimmest margins, particularly Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
Who Will Win?
As we enter the final weeks of the 2024 presidential campaign, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains exceptionally close. While Harris maintains a slight lead in national polls, a handful of key swing states will ultimately decide the outcome, many of which are too close to call.
The demographic divides in this election are stark, with Harris performing strongly among younger voters, women, and minorities. In comparison, Trump maintains an edge with older voters, men, and white voters without college degrees. Key issues such as the economy, immigration, and abortion rights continue to shape voter preferences.
As Election Day approaches, both campaigns will focus on turning out their base voters and persuading the small number of undecided voters in crucial battleground states. With many states still within the margin of error, the 2024 election promises to be one of the most closely watched and potentially consequential in recent American history.
