2024 US Election: The Final Throw of the Dice

Americans are heading to the polls to decide the closest presidential election in living memory.

According to the polls, all that matters are the seven swing states we’ve been following for the last few months.

In fact, it could all come down to who can take Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral college votes.

The closing polls of the campaign have this as the closest race, with just 0.2 points between the candidates.

So, let’s have a final look at the state of the polls.

Too Close to Call

The national polls have tightened again in the last few days. In our previous analysis last week we had Harris ahead by 1.4 points nationally, whereas now it’s just 1.2.

RealClearPolitics had the candidates tied until Harris took a 0.1 point lead on Monday. As these are all within the margins of error, Trump may even be ahead nationally.

As it generally does, the Electoral College is thought to slightly favour the Republicans, which means the Democrat candidate would normally need a national lead of several points to win. And even that was not enough for Hillary Clinton.

That may not be the picture this time, however, given it looks like everything comes down a handful of swing states. FiveThirtyEight’s simulation forecast gives Harris a 50% chance of winning and Trump a 49% win probability.

The Battleground States

After several months of following the polls, we know the seven swing states by heart. The 103 electoral college votes from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will decide this election.

Here is the very latest state of play in each state according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling averages:

Arizona (11 electoral votes): The 2 point gap Trump pulled out over the last week and a half appears to be holding up. Our call: Trump

Georgia (16 electoral votes): What was a 1.8 point lead for Trump nearly a week ago has shrunk to 0.8. This one is heading to be too close to call. Our call: Too close to call

Michigan (15 electoral votes): Harris has eked her lead back up to 1% here so we think she will hold on to this important rust belt state. Our call: Harris

Nevada (6 electoral votes): Both candidates are still as near 50/50 as makes no difference, so it’s impossible to call. Our call: Too close to call

North Carolina (16 electoral votes): Trump has established a consistent 1 point lead here over the last month and is maintaining it at 0.9 points, so we expect him to just hold on. Our call: Trump

Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes): Having eaten away at Harris’s 1.5 point lead since mid-September, Trump has now seen his own 0.2 point lead overturned in the last week making this one too close to call. Our call: Too close to call

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Harris has extended her 0.4 point lead from last week to 1 point, so we believe she will be able to close this one out. Our call: Harris

In addition to these 7 states there was some controversy in the last week over a poll in Iowa which suddenly gave Harris a 3 point lead there, despite all other polls giving the state comfortably to Trump. Was Iowa about to make it an eighth swing state? Probably not, in our opinion, if you look at every other poll done there. On the other hand, if Harris were to take Iowa, it would suggest a massive landslide win for her on the scale of Obama’s victories.

Electoral College Prediction

Harris has 226 safe Electoral College votes and Trump 219 according to 270toWin.com.

If the predictions go as we have called them above, then it looks like this:

Harris’s path to victory, if she can hold on to her safe votes and maintain her slight advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin is to win either Pennsylvania’s 19 votes or win the 22 votes on offer from Georgia and Nevada. Crucially, she does not need to win all of them.

Trump, on the other hand needs to win all three states that are too close to call, in addition to holding his safe votes plus Arizona and North Carolina. Even if he holds on in Georgia, where his lead has all but disappeared, and takes Nevada, it won’t be enough if Harris takes Pennsylvania.

Early Voting – What We Know

As of the morning of November 5^th over 82 million Americans had already cast their ballots, representing approximately 50% of expected total turnout. While this is lower than the pandemic-influenced 2020 election, it still represents significant pre-election day participation.

Key battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina have seen record early in-person voting numbers. Republicans appear to have increased their share of early votes compared to 2020, narrowing the traditional Democratic advantage in early voting. In states tracking party registration, Republicans now comprise 35% of early voters compared to Democrats’ 37%, a significant shift from 2020’s 12-point Democratic advantage.

Despite increased Republican early voting participation, CNN polling shows Harris leading among early voters in most battleground states, except Nevada. The gender gap remains significant, with approximately 1.8 million more women than men voting early in the seven most competitive states, though this gap has narrowed compared to 2020.

While early voting data provides insights into turnout patterns, it cannot predict election outcomes, as voter preferences remain private, and Election Day turnout could significantly impact final results.

What the Polls Are Really Telling Us

As things stand, if the final polls are close to accurate, we are in for the one of the closest elections in history. It really could come down to a handful of votes in Pennsylvania, which looks to be the key battleground.

On the other hand, polls at the past two elections have overestimated Democrat support by 3 to 4 points, and it was the same for the Republicans in 2012. It seems bizarre to say, given how close the polls have been, but a landslide victory for either side is still within the margin of error.

If Trump or Harris take those three states that we have as too close to call and manage to grab a couple of other swing states in which they’re polling behind, they will have well over 300 electoral college votes.

One of the major unknown factors is the enormous gap between how the genders intend to vote (57% of women intend to vote for Harris versus only 40% of men). There has been quite a lot of talk about shy Trump voters concealing their intentions from pollsters (as well as family and friends), but is there a shy Harris voter phenomenon as well?

We will just have to wait and see.

A Day to Remember

As the day progresses, keep an eye on the results as they come in on your favourite poll tracking website. Here are a few links you might find useful:

https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president/

https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/election-results-2024/

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/what-to-watch-election-day/index.html