Precision Polling Can Uncover Voter Intentions Seat-by-Seat

Precision Polling Can Uncover Voter Intentions Seat-by-Seat

How can microtargeted phone polling give greater accuracy and insights into the voting intentions of UK constituencies during this election?

The UK’s first-past-the-post (FPTP) election system gives political pollsters a few extra curveballs to deal with.

The most obvious is that national party preference polls, while a general indicator of the country’s mood, do not tell you which party will win overall. You have to understand how the vote is distributed across 650 constituencies.

To piece together this complex nationwide tapestry of voter intentions, pollsters need a rich, granular level of detail from each constituency. And as each one of those seats is its own mini battlefield – made up of multiple wards and boroughs all with very different demographic make-ups – predicting how a given constituency will swing is a challenge in its own right.

In this article, we will look at how hyper-targeted telephone polling using micro quotas of the election roll can give the granularity of data pollsters need to make accurate predictions.


Microtargeting Voter Segments

With phone polling you can set specific quotas for each ward, postcode, or even street within a target constituency. Doing this with face-to-face or door-to-door polling is time consuming and expensive, while with online polling it’s almost impossible due to its opt-in nature.

Phone polling allows you can reach out in an extremely targeted, cost-effective manner and ensure that every population segment is adequately represented in your samples. By breaking down the constituency into smaller units, we can capture the nuanced differences in voter behaviour and preferences often missed in broader surveys. This granularity allows us to understand how local issues and demographic factors influence voting patterns, providing a comprehensive and accurate picture of voter intentions.

Leveraging access to the electoral roll is a crucial component of our methodology. This allows us to create highly representative samples by including all eligible voters in our polling efforts. Using the electoral roll, we can target specific voter groups often underrepresented in opt-in online polls, such as older voters or those in rural areas. This ensures that our samples reflect the true diversity of the constituency, leading to more accurate and reliable results.

This approach captures various demographics, including age, income, occupation, and housing status, helping you to understand the full spectrum of voter concerns and priorities. By collecting data on various demographic factors, we can identify trends and patterns that influence voting behaviour, such as the impact of economic status on political preferences or the differences in priorities between younger and older voters.


Speed of Results

Phone polling is the fastest way to get targeted results from multiple quotas, usually within a day or two of starting calling.

Rapid Scaling: One of the critical strengths of TKW Research is our ability to quickly ramp up operations to meet the changing needs of a campaign. Whether increasing the number of interviews in a particular area or expanding our coverage to new constituencies, we have the infrastructure and resources to scale our operations rapidly. This flexibility is essential for responding to the dynamic nature of election campaigns, where timely data is crucial for making informed decisions.

Real-Time Adjustments: We adjust our sampling and questionnaires in real time based on emerging trends and issues. This responsiveness ensures that our polling remains relevant and accurate throughout the campaign. By continuously monitoring the political landscape and voter sentiment, we can refine our questions and target new areas of interest, providing our clients with the most current and actionable insights.

Timely Results: Delivering results in a matter of days ensures that our data is always fresh and actionable. In the fast-paced world of election campaigns, having up-to-date information is critical for strategic planning and decision-making. Our streamlined processes and efficient fieldwork enable us to provide timely insights that help our clients stay ahead of their competition and adapt to changing circumstances.


Technology and Quality Control

By implementing a targeted and rigorous approach, TKW Research provides unparalleled accuracy and insights into voter behaviour at the constituency level. This is enabled by our cutting-edge telephone interviewing technology and our trusted processes.

Advanced CATI Systems: We have invested in state-of-the-art CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) systems to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of our polling. These systems allow our interviewers to conduct surveys seamlessly, ensuring consistency and precision in data collection. CATI technology also enables us to manage large volumes of data effectively, providing real-time analytics and insights crucial for campaign strategy.

High Standards: Our interviewers are trained to the highest data collection and respondent engagement standards. We ensure that our team is skilled in building rapport with respondents, asking clear and unbiased questions, and accurately recording responses. This commitment to excellence in interviewer training ensures that our data is of the highest quality, free from common biases and errors that can compromise the reliability of polling results.

Continuous Monitoring: We continuously refine our processes to maintain accuracy and reliability. Regular quality checks and performance evaluations help us promptly identify and address issues, ensuring our polling methods remain robust and effective. By adopting a culture of continuous improvement, we can deliver consistently reliable results that our clients can trust.

Our commitment to precision, flexibility, and technological innovation ensures that our clients receive the most reliable data, enabling them to make informed strategic decisions in the highly competitive arena of UK elections.


Why Telephone Polling is the Gold Standard

Telephone polling stands out as the most reliable method for uncovering the granular data you need to predict how each UK constituency will swing, for several reasons:

Accuracy: Telephone surveys consistently outperform online, IVR, and text message polling regarding accuracy and reliability.

Human Interaction: Live interviewers build trust, verify identities, and can ask follow-up questions to clarify responses.

Controlled Environment: Telephone interviews minimise errors and inconsistencies in data collection.

Proven Track Record: Telephone polling has a proven track record of accurately predicting election outcomes and reflecting public opinion.


Making Phone Polling Affordable Again – from Fiji

Live phone polling is undeniably valuable, but costs can be a concern. To make it cost-competitive again, we offer a unique solution: high-quality live phone polling delivered at competitive prices through our Fiji-based CATI operations. We can dial anywhere in the world, primarily in English-speaking countries, with multi-lingual staff available.

Fiji enables us to provide cost-effective services through reduced operational costs and a highly skilled workforce. With significantly lower expenses for rent, salaries, and everyday costs compared to regions like the US or Europe, we can offer our clients 40-50% savings compared to US-based polling services. Additionally, Fiji’s 99% literacy rate provides a rich talent pool, allowing us to attract and retain highly-trained, university-educated interviewers at a fraction of the cost compared to other regions. Fijians are native English speakers and have a neutral accent. They also share a cultural affinity with the UK through historical ties, the country’s popularity as a tourist destination, and even a shared love of rugby.


Try TKW Research Risk-Free

Seeing is believing, and TKW Research is so confident in its ability to deliver superior results that it’s offering a risk-free trial to new clients. You can receive your first 100 surveys free for a limited time—no strings attached.

This is an opportunity to experience firsthand the difference that targeted telephone polling can make and to gain the insights needed to craft winning strategies in a highly competitive political landscape.

In a UK general election where every seat counts, having access to accurate, granular constituency-level data is not just a nice thing—it’s a necessity. With TKW Research’s proven methodology, cutting-edge technology, and commitment to excellence, campaigns and pollsters can confidently approach polling day.


We’ve put together a Case Study to show some of the results and cost reductions we’ve achieved when conducting political polling offshore – download it here.

For more information about TKW Research’s Live Phone Polling solutions – and to find out how we’ve made it cost-competitive again – visit this page.