While the 2024 US Presidential election continues hurtling to its conclusion, we are still no closer to being able to predict a winner.
The races for the Senate and the House of Representatives also hang in the balance, only amplifying the stakes in what most people agree is the most pivotal election in decades. (They always say that, of course, but this time it really does feel like it could be).
Could this just be one of those elections where we’ll just have to count the votes before we know anything for certain?
As TKW Research Group is a polling and market research company, we’re not going to give up on trying to predict the outcome so easily. For what it’s worth then, in this blog we will explore the latest polling data both nationally and in key battleground states, and assess the critical issues and emerging trends that could shape the outcome on November 5th.
A Tightening Race and A Nation Divided
The national polls continue to predict an almost dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. While most polls still have Harris ahead by a nose, Trump has bucked that trend for the first time in weeks in the last few days.
An Ipsos / Reuters poll from 27th October has him 1 point ahead, while two AtlasIntel polls give him 2 to 3 point lead.
The average of recent polls still favours Harris by around 1.4% but if anything, the race is only tightening at the national level.
Despite the ever so slender lead that Harris still appears to hold nationally, even if Trump is closing in, the picture in the Electoral College is thought to slightly favour Trump. FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 52% win probability and suggests there is a 26% chance that Harris could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College, just like Hilary Clinton did in 2016.
The Battleground States
Just seven states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – will swing the election one way or the other. These are the states where the polls are still comfortably within the margin of error, meaning either candidate could yet win them.
With a combined 103 electoral votes, whoever takes the majority of these states – even if only by a whisker – is likely to become the next President.
Arizona (11 electoral votes): Although the latest CNN poll shows Harris ahead of Trump by one point the trend over the last month is of Trump steadily pulling away to open a 2.2 point gap on average. Our call: Trump
Georgia (16 electoral votes): The best polling result that Harris has managed recently was a tie. In every other poll Trump is establishing a stronger and stronger lead. With a 1.8 point gap and growing, we’re calling this one for Trump. Our call: Trump
Michigan (15 electoral votes): Harris maintains an incredibly narrow lead over Trump on just 0.8 points, having been as far ahead as 3.4 points ahead near the end of August. Two separate CCES/YouGov polls published 25th October, conducted over several weeks, give Harris a 5 point and 7 point lead however, so we think she will hold on. Our call: Harris
Nevada (6 electoral votes): This one is absolutely impossible to call as both candidates have been with half a point of each other for months now. The polls continue to alternate between the two. We’re going to sit on the fence with this one. Our call: Too close to call
North Carolina (16 electoral votes): Trump holds a small but consistent lead in North Carolina, with the latest polls showing him ahead of Harris by 1 point. This is a lead that Trump has eked out and consolidated over the last few weeks and we expect him to hold on, just. Our call: Trump
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes): The race in Pennsylvania remains extremely close, with the latest polls showing Trump ahead of Harris by just 0.1 points. The general trend here is also in Trump’s favour, with Harris having once held a lead of 1.9 points as late as mid-September. Our call: Trump
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Harris leads Trump by just 0.4 points in Wisconsin, a state that narrowly flipped to Trump in the 2016 election. While he has momentum and has closed the gap, we think Harris will just hold on as the CCES/YouGov poll conducted during the first 3 weeks of October gives her a healthy 5 point lead. Our call: Harris
Electoral College Prediction
According to 270towin.com Harris can count on 226 safe Electoral College votes and Trump on 219. This means Harris needs to pick up 44 votes from the seven swing states, and Trump needs 51 of them to win.
If the predictions go as we have called them above, then even without Nevada’s 6 votes, Trump will be comfortably over the line with 281 Electoral College votes. Bear in mind that all it would take to reverse that result would be for Pennsylvania to flip to Harris – who, remember, held a 1.9 point lead there only a few weeks ago.
So it really is too close to call, even if the momentum over the past few days of polling appears to be with Trump. That could all change before Tuesday.
The Battle for Congress
While the race for the White House tends to capture the headlines, the contests for control of the Senate and House of Representatives are crucial for both parties. After all, it is the outcome of these races which will determine the next President’s ability to enact their legislative agenda.
Senate:
The Democrats currently hold a slim majority in the Senate of 51 to 49. 23 Democratic-held seats are up for grabs in 2024, making the Democrats vulnerable to losing their majority. Several races in traditionally Republican-leaning states, such as Montana and Ohio, are highly competitive. The Republicans only need to hold their own and flip one Democrat seat to gain control.
House of Representatives:
The Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, but numerous seats are considered competitive. Analysts have identified about 34 House seats that could potentially change hands, making the race for control of the chamber extremely tight.
Is Early Voting an Indicator?
Early voting numbers are shattering records across the country, which suggests a generally high level of voter engagement.
Across the US, over 41 million people had voted by October 28th. In Georgia, over 2 million people, representing 25% of the electorate, had voted early by October 25th, setting daily records. North Carolina reported about 1.4 million early ballots by the same date.
While no precise figures are available for registered Democrat vs. Republican turnout, the numbers suggest that Republicans may be narrowing the gap in early voting participation, which has traditionally favoured Democrats. For instance, in Nevada, more Republicans appear to have voted early than Democrats. This shift could reduce the impact of the “blue shift” seen in 2020, where later-counted Democratic mail-in votes contributed to Biden’s victory.
While early voting trends can offer some insights, it’s crucial to remember that they don’t necessarily predict the final outcome. Voting patterns can differ between early voters and Election Day voters, and the actual votes are not tallied until after polls close on November 5th.
Factors to Watch
Several factors will likely play a decisive role in the final outcome of the 2024 election:
Turnout: Mobilizing their respective bases and getting out the vote will be crucial for both campaigns, especially in key swing states.
Shy Trump Voters: The “shy Trump voter” phenomenon, where voters hesitant to reveal their support for Trump to pollsters, could lead to an underestimation of his actual support.
Late Deciders: A significant portion of voters remain undecided. How these voters break in the final days of the campaign could swing the outcome.
Campaign Strategies: Both campaigns are focusing on specific issues and demographic groups in their efforts to sway voters. The effectiveness of these strategies could prove crucial.
A Nation Awaits its Verdict
The 2024 US election is poised for a nail-biting finish. Every outcome remains uncertain, with the Presidential race, control of Congress, and the direction of the nation seemingly hanging in the balance. Over the next few days we will see both parties make their last-minute appeals to voters. There is a palpable sense of anticipation, not just in the United States but around the world.
